Less than two months before the first anniversary of the 500,000-strong rally on July 1, there have been disturbing signs of bubbling political disquiet in Hong Kong after Beijing ruled out universal suffrage for the election of the chief executive in 2007 and the entire legislature in 2008.

Last week, veteran Democrat Szeto Wah revealed that two of his friends had been attacked by a man outside the Legco building on Monday. The man had also abused Mr Szeto after he had lunch with his friends.

On May 2, his close ally, Martin Lee Chu-ming, had to put on a pair of headphones to drown out the noisy abuse from critics at the City Forum in Victoria Park. Mr Lee needed a police escort after the forum in order to leave safely.

Some people may dismiss Mr Szeto's encounters as isolated incidents, while seeing the angry outbursts against pro-democracy speakers at the City Forum as just part of the regular background noise at the weekly meeting.

But, taken seriously, they perhaps represent an amber warning light against the rising political temperature in the divisive row over early direct elections.

Separately, it was also revealed last week that a pro-democracy lobby has had difficulty getting insurance cover for liabilities incurred at rallies planned over the next year, including the upcoming June 4 candlelit vigil and the July 1 protest. A pro-democracy activist, Lee Cheuk-yan, blamed political pressure.

In its latest report on Hong Kong published on Wednesday, Standard & Poor's rating agency said: "In contrast to the brighter economic outlook, the political environment is clouding over." This, of course, refers to the decision on early universal suffrage and the next Legco election in September. But the forecast of unpredictability could also apply to the political weather over the next two months.

Superficially, the public response to the National People's Congress Standing Committee ruling on April 26 has been calm. One member of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's cabinet said: "People don't want to confront the central government. There's also a strong feeling of resignation to the reality ... The overall economic atmosphere will continue to improve. The government will avoid making provocative remarks. But you cannot stop others who may be counterproductive from talking. It seems that July 1 should be trouble-free."

But despite the seemingly subdued community response, negative sentiment will run deep for some time. According to the University of Hong Kong public opinion programme, ratings of 14 social and political indexes recorded an across-the-board drop in a recent survey. Pollsters predict a further dip, following the NPC ruling.

As the 15th anniversary of the June 4 crackdown, and July 1, draw closer, the debate over whether people should resort to public rallies and demonstrations will heat up again.

There will be more calls from prominent figures for pro-democracy activists not to organise a mass July 1 rally, which they fear could further strain mainland-Hong Kong relations. But the more the pressure, the more likely people will feel agitated, and will take to the streets.

Given the pent-up public exasperation over Beijing's high-handed decision on political reform, it seems inevitable that people will turn up en masse on July 1 to vent their frustrations and discontent. How to make sure it is as peaceful and orderly as last year's march will be a critical challenge for the pro-democracy camp, the government and the whole of society.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large. chris.yeung@scmp.com

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